When Does Diffusion Stop? Forecasting Innovation Diffusion: System Dynamics for Telehealth

With the rapid aging of the global population, telehealth has become one of the most important applications in the emerging industries. The present study proposes innovation diffusion for telehealth using a system dynamics model. The results indicate that telehealth technology is already at a mature stage, and that policy promotion and market demands are the main factors in diffusion enhancement. Notably, medical regulations are the most critical factors inhibiting telehealth diffusion. The present study also proposes five types of scenario forecasts for telehealth diffusion over the next 15 years, as well as suggestions that can provide guidance for technology planning and decision making.