The study of integrated assessment of regional water supply capacity under climate change

The capacity of water supply in the water resources system is neither just the quantity of the river discharge nor the summation of storage of the reservoirs. To estimate it reasonably, it must be considered with both demand side and supply side which includes the systematic combination of hydrology, climate, reservoirs, weirs, water treatment plants and others. Due to climate change, the temporal distribution of precipitation might be changed in the future. The capacity of water supply might be affected with changing climate. This study used an integrated climate change impact assessment system - TaiWAP with the system dynamic model to establish the regional water resources system to analyze and approach the carrying capacity of water supply system in a case of Kaohsiung water resources system. The impact assessments of climatic change with precipitation, flow discharge, and water supply capacity of the watersheds were done by using an integrated tool, TaiWAP, which consists of SRES scenarios, weather generation model, GWLF hydrology model, and system dynamics model - Vensim. The planned strategies for water supply system were also applied to evaluate the shortage of water supply capacity under climate change.