The impact of FORMOSAT-5/AIP observations on the ionospheric space weather

This paper assimilates the in-situ O+ fluxes observations obtained from the Advanced Ionospheric Probe (AIP) onboard the upcoming FORMOSAT-5 (FS-5) satellite and evaluates its possible impact on the ionospheric space weather forecast model. The Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), designed for the global O+ fluxes, is shown to improve the electron density specification in the vicinity of satellite orbits. The root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of the ionospheric electron density obtained from assimilating the daytime O+ fluxes could be improved by ∼10 and ∼5% for the forecast and nowcast, respectively. Although the improvement of nighttime O+ flux assimilation is less significant compared to the daytime assimilation, it still reveals impacts on the model result. This suggests that nighttime observations might not be sufficient to alter the model trajectory in the positive direction as with the daytime result. Alternative data assimilation approaches, such as assimilation of the empirical model built by using the nighttime FS-5/AIP together with other existing satellite observations of O+ flux could obtain better accuracy of the electron density forecast.