Taiwan Ionospheric Model (TWIM) prediction based on time series autoregressive analysis

L. C. Tsai, Ernest P. Macalalad, C. H. Liu

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

6 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)


As described in a previous paper, a three-dimensional ionospheric electron density (Ne) model has been constructed from vertical Ne profiles retrieved from the FormoSat3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate GPS radio occultation measurements and worldwide ionosonde foF2 and foE data and named the TaiWan Ionospheric Model (TWIM). The TWIM exhibits vertically fitted α-Chapman-type layers with distinct F2, F1, E, and D layers, and surface spherical harmonic approaches for the fitted layer parameters including peak density, peak density height, and scale height. To improve the TWIM into a real-time model, we have developed a time series autoregressive model to forecast short-term TWIM coefficients. The time series of TWIM coefficients are considered as realizations of stationary stochastic processes within a processing window of 30 days. These autocorrelation coefficients are used to derive the autoregressive parameters and then forecast the TWIM coefficients, based on the least squares method and Lagrange multiplier technique. The forecast root-mean-square relative TWIM coefficient errors are generally <30% for 1 day predictions. The forecast TWIM values of foE and foF2 values are also compared and evaluated using worldwide ionosonde data.

頁(從 - 到)977-986
期刊Radio Science
出版狀態已出版 - 1 10月 2014


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