Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes

Siew Ann Cheong; Teck Liang Tan; Chien Chih Chen; Wu Lung Chang; Zheng Liu; Lock Yue Chew; Peter M.A. Sloot; Neil F. Johnson

doi:10.1038/srep03624

Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes

Siew Ann Cheong, Teck Liang Tan, Chien Chih Chen, Wu Lung Chang, Zheng Liu, Lock Yue Chew, Peter M.A. Sloot, Neil F. Johnson

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻 › 期刊論文 › 同行評審

8 引文斯高帕斯（Scopus）

摘要

Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

原文	???core.languages.en_GB???
文章編號	3624
期刊	Scientific Reports
卷	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/srep03624
出版狀態	已出版 - 10 1月 2014

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10.1038/srep03624

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abstract = "Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.",

author = "Cheong, {Siew Ann} and Tan, {Teck Liang} and Chen, {Chien Chih} and Chang, {Wu Lung} and Zheng Liu and Chew, {Lock Yue} and Sloot, {Peter M.A.} and Johnson, {Neil F.}",

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AU - Chew, Lock Yue

AU - Sloot, Peter M.A.

AU - Johnson, Neil F.

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Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes

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