Sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts for typhoon soudelor (2015) near landfall to polarimetric radar data assimilation

Chih Chien Tsai, Kao Shen Chung

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

1 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Based on the preciousness and uniqueness of polarimetric radar observations collected near the landfall of Typhoon Soudelor (2015), this study investigates the sensitivities of very short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for this typhoon to polarimetric radar data assimilation. A series of experiments assimilating various combinations of radar variables are carried out for the purpose of improving a 6 h deterministic forecast for the most intense period. The results of the control simulation expose three sources of the observation operator errors, including the raindrop shape-size relation, the limitations for ice-phase hydrometeors, and the melting ice model. Nevertheless, polarimetric radar data assimilation with the unadjusted observation operator can still improve the analyses, especially rainwater, and consequent QPFs for this typhoon case. The different impacts of assimilating reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and specific differential phase are only distinguishable at the lower levels of convective precipitation areas where specific differential phase is found most helpful. The positive effect of radar data assimilation on QPFs can last three hours in this study, and further improvement can be expected by optimizing the observation operator in the future.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
文章編號3711
頁(從 - 到)1-23
頁數23
期刊Remote Sensing
12
發行號22
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 2 11月 2020

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