Seismic hazard analysis with the Bayesian approach

研究成果: 書貢獻/報告類型會議論文篇章同行評審

1 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

The Bayesian approach is of increasing popularity in engineering probability assessment. The key purpose of the method is to develop a new estimate by integrating observations or samples, along with other sources of prior data. By applying the approach to seismic hazard analysis, we developed and introduced the Bayesian seismic hazard analysis in this paper, including the algorithm, and a case study from Taipei City. The Bayesian analysis shows that based on earthquake strongmotion samples in the past 15 years (i.e., observation), and the return periods of 261 and 475 years reported in two studies (priors), the Bayesian estimate on the return period of PGA ≥ 0.25 g at the study site is equal to 339 years, a new estimate using the Bayesian approach to integrate limited earthquake strong-motion observations, with indirect evidence and estimates.

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主出版物標題12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015
發行者University of British Columbia
ISBN(電子)9780888652454
出版狀態已出版 - 2015
事件12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2012 - Vancouver, Canada
持續時間: 12 7月 201515 7月 2015

出版系列

名字12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015

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???event.eventtypes.event.conference???12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2012
國家/地區Canada
城市Vancouver
期間12/07/1515/07/15

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