TY - JOUR

T1 - Repeatable source, site, and path effects on the standard deviation for empirical ground-motion prediction models

AU - Lin, Po Shen

AU - Chiou, Brian

AU - Abrahamson, Norman

AU - Walling, Melanie

AU - Lee, Chyi Tyi

AU - Cheng, Chin Tung

PY - 2011/10/1

Y1 - 2011/10/1

N2 - In this study, we quantify the reduction in the standard deviation for empirical ground-motion prediction models by removing ergodic assumption.We partition the modeling error (residual) into five components, three of which represent the repeatable source-location-specific, site-specific, and path-specific deviations from the population mean. A variance estimation procedure of these error components is developed for use with a set of recordings from earthquakes not heavily clustered in space.With most source locations and propagation paths sampled only once, we opt to exploit the spatial correlation of residuals to estimate the variances associated with the path-specific and the source-location-specific deviations. The estimation procedure is applied to ground-motion amplitudes from 64 shallow earthquakes in Taiwan recorded at 285 sites with at least 10 recordings per site. The estimated variance components are used to quantify the reduction in aleatory variability that can be used in hazard analysis for a single site and for a single path. For peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations at periods of 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, and 3.0 s, we find that the singlesite standard deviations are 9%-14% smaller than the total standard deviation, whereas the single-path standard deviations are 39%-47% smaller.

AB - In this study, we quantify the reduction in the standard deviation for empirical ground-motion prediction models by removing ergodic assumption.We partition the modeling error (residual) into five components, three of which represent the repeatable source-location-specific, site-specific, and path-specific deviations from the population mean. A variance estimation procedure of these error components is developed for use with a set of recordings from earthquakes not heavily clustered in space.With most source locations and propagation paths sampled only once, we opt to exploit the spatial correlation of residuals to estimate the variances associated with the path-specific and the source-location-specific deviations. The estimation procedure is applied to ground-motion amplitudes from 64 shallow earthquakes in Taiwan recorded at 285 sites with at least 10 recordings per site. The estimated variance components are used to quantify the reduction in aleatory variability that can be used in hazard analysis for a single site and for a single path. For peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations at periods of 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, and 3.0 s, we find that the singlesite standard deviations are 9%-14% smaller than the total standard deviation, whereas the single-path standard deviations are 39%-47% smaller.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79957926358&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1785/0120090312

DO - 10.1785/0120090312

M3 - 期刊論文

AN - SCOPUS:79957926358

SN - 0037-1106

VL - 101

SP - 2281

EP - 2295

JO - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

IS - 5

ER -