Optimization approach for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting

Min Hao Wu, J. P. Wang, I. Chia Chen

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

9 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Debris flow is a natural hazard typically triggered by heavy rainfall. Previous research aimed at forecasting the occurrence of debris flows have led to the development of several rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for different areas using the second-percentile method that allows a missed-alarm probability of up to 2%, while disregarding the occurrence of false alarms. The current study aims to develop rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting taking into account both missed alarms and false alarms. Specifically, the new optimization approach seeks to determine the optimal duration-intensity threshold associated with the lowest missed- and false-alarm probabilities combined. In addition to the methodology, a case study is presented to show that the new optimization approach is feasible for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds in debris flow forecasting, and is more efficient than the method currently in use, which is associated with a higher probability of missed and false alarms combined.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
頁(從 - 到)2495-2501
頁數7
期刊Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment
78
發行號4
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 1 6月 2019

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