## 摘要

Advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) is commonly used to obtain an upper-bound estimate for a probabilistic analysis. This study presents a new AFOSM application to engineering seismology, estimating major earthquake probabilities based on fault length and slip rate, along with an earthquake empirical model subject to a model error of 0.26 M_{w}. The AFOSM analysis shows that the probability could be as high as 64 % for a major earthquake in northern Taiwan to exceed M_{w}7.0, considering the length and slip rate of the Sanchiao fault are equal to 36 km and 2 ± 1 mm per year. By contrast, the other case study shows that for the Meishan fault in central Taiwan, the probability is “only” 4 % for earthquake magnitude to exceed M_{w}7.0, given a shorter fault length of 14 km and a larger slip rate of 6 ± 3 mm per year.

原文 | ???core.languages.en_GB??? |
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頁（從 - 到） | 2577-2587 |

頁數 | 11 |

期刊 | Natural Hazards |

卷 | 75 |

發行號 | 3 |

DOIs | |

出版狀態 | 已出版 - 1 1月 2015 |