On the use of AFOSM to estimate major earthquake probabilities in Taiwan

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

5 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) is commonly used to obtain an upper-bound estimate for a probabilistic analysis. This study presents a new AFOSM application to engineering seismology, estimating major earthquake probabilities based on fault length and slip rate, along with an earthquake empirical model subject to a model error of 0.26 Mw. The AFOSM analysis shows that the probability could be as high as 64 % for a major earthquake in northern Taiwan to exceed Mw7.0, considering the length and slip rate of the Sanchiao fault are equal to 36 km and 2 ± 1 mm per year. By contrast, the other case study shows that for the Meishan fault in central Taiwan, the probability is “only” 4 % for earthquake magnitude to exceed Mw7.0, given a shorter fault length of 14 km and a larger slip rate of 6 ± 3 mm per year.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
頁(從 - 到)2577-2587
頁數11
期刊Natural Hazards
75
發行號3
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 1 1月 2015

指紋

深入研究「On the use of AFOSM to estimate major earthquake probabilities in Taiwan」主題。共同形成了獨特的指紋。

引用此