Nowcast guidance of afternoon convection initiation for Taiwan

Hui Ling Chang, Barbara G. Brown, Pao Shin Chu, Yu Chieng Liou, Wen Ho Wang

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

6 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Focusing on afternoon thunderstorms in Taiwan during the warm season (May-October) under weak synoptic forcing, this study applied the Taiwan Auto-NowCaster (TANC) to produce 1-h likelihood nowcasts of afternoon convection initiation (ACI) using a fuzzy logic approach. The primary objective is to design more useful forecast products with uncertainty regions of predicted thunderstorms to provide nowcast guidance of ACI for forecasters. Four sensitivity tests on forecast performance were conducted to improve the usefulness of nowcasts for forecasters. The optimal likelihood threshold (Lt) for ACIs, which is the likelihood value that best corresponds to the observed ACIs, was determined to be 0.6. Because of the high uncertainty on the exact location or timing of ACIs in nowcasts, location displacement and temporal shifting of ACIs should be considered in operational applications. When a spatial window of 5 km and a temporal window of 18 min are applied, the TANC displays moderate accuracy and satisfactory discrimination with an acceptable degree of overforecasting. The nonparametric Mann-Whitney test indicated that the performance of the TANC substantially surpasses the competing Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System-Weather Research and Forecasting Model, which serves as a pertinent reference for short-range (0-6 h) forecasts at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
頁(從 - 到)1801-1817
頁數17
期刊Weather and Forecasting
32
發行號5
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 1 10月 2017

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