Multi-weather evaluation of nowcasting methods including a new empirical blending scheme

Hsin Hung Lin, Chih Chien Tsai, Jia Chyi Liou, Yu Chun Chen, Chung Yi Lin, Lee Yaw Lin, Kao Shen Chung

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

3 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

This study utilized a radar echo extrapolation system, a high-resolution numerical model with radar data assimilation, and three blending schemes including a new empirical one, called the extrapolation adjusted by model prediction (ExAMP), to carry out 150 min reflectivity nowcasting experiments for various heavy rainfall events in Taiwan in 2019. ExAMP features full trust in the pattern of the extrapolated reflectivity with intensity adjustable by numerical model prediction. The spatial performance for two contrasting events shows that the ExAMP scheme outperforms the others for the more accurate prediction of both strengthening and weakening processes. The statistical skill for all the sampled events shows that the nowcasts by ExAMP and the extrapolation system obtain the lowest and second lowest root mean square errors at all the lead time, respectively. In terms of threat scores and bias scores above certain reflectivity thresholds, the ExAMP nowcast may have more grid points of misses for high reflectivity in comparison to extrapolation, but serious overestimation among the points of hits and false alarms is the least likely to happen with the new scheme. Moreover, the event type does not change the performance ranking of the five methods, all of which have the highest predictability for a typhoon event and the lowest for local thunderstorm events.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
文章編號1166
期刊Atmosphere
11
發行號11
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 11月 2020

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