Modelling the spatial variability of wildfire susceptibility in Honduras using remote sensing and geographical information systems

Miguel Conrado Valdez, Kang Tsung Chang, Chi Farn Chen, Shou Hao Chiang, Jorge Luis Santos

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

44 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Forests in Honduras are endangered as a result of the relentless occurrence of wildfires during the dry season, and their frequency and area burned have been gradually increasing, a pattern attributable to the numerous ignition sources. For this reason, there is a substantial need to identify the major drivers of wildfires and map the regions where they are most likely to occur. In this study, we integrated the wildfire occurrences throughout the 2010–2015 period with a series of variables using the random forest algorithm. We included variables related to human activities such as the continuous distances to infrastructure and settlements. Other variables included are satellite observations that reflect the seasonal vegetation change, climatic conditions over the country, and topographical variables. The analysis of the explanatory variables revealed that the dry fuel conditions and low precipitation combined with the proximity to non-paved and paved roads were the major drivers of wildfires in the region. The estimated area with high and very high wildfire susceptibility was 15% of the country, located mainly in the central and eastern regions. The proposed national-scale wildfire susceptibility map can lead to enhanced preventive measures to minimize risk and the impacts caused by wildfires.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
頁(從 - 到)876-892
頁數17
期刊Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk
8
發行號2
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 15 12月 2017

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