Modelling the dynamic impacts of high speed rail operation on regional public transport-from the perspective of energy economy

While the introduction of a high speed rail (HSR) provides passengers with another more environmentally friendly, convenient, and time-saving transport option, it also disrupts the existing passenger transport market. This study adopts time series analysis to model the dynamic competition in a regional passenger transport market when an HSR is introduced. The analyses include examining the long-run equilibrium and causal relationships, and the short-run causality and dynamic relationships between transport modes. In addition, based on the model we conduct impulse response tests and variance decomposition tests to further interpret the interactions between two transport modes. An empirical study is carried out, and the findings indicate that the HSR has a negative impact on conventional rail and air transport in the long-run. In the short-run dynamics, the air passenger transport volume could be regarded as a good predictor of HSR passenger volume. In turn, the HSR passenger volume could be used to predict conventional rail transport volume. The operations of HSR and conventional rail are complementary in the short term. From the short-run market viewpoint, the HSR and conventional rail meet different kinds of passenger demand. Therefore, a previous increased passenger volume for the HSR implies an overall increasing demand for regional transport. Consequently, the past increased HSR passenger volume could be used to predict the growth of conventional rail transport. Through the impulse response test, we can further track the responses of the three transport modes to the shocks from themselves and each other.