Introducing non-stationary earthquake process concept: Including an analytical model and a case study in Central Taiwan

Y. Xu, J. P. Wang

研究成果: 書貢獻/報告類型會議論文篇章同行評審

摘要

From observation and experience, earthquake recurrence induced by the same fault should be influenced by "memory", or such a stochastic process should be non-stationary rather than being stationary. For instance, the same fault triggering the recent Tohoku earthquake in Japan is less likely to trigger another one in the coming few years, but the probability will be increasing with time. However, the commonly used Poisson process considers the earthquake as a stationary stochastic process, resulting in the identical probability regardless whether the next earthquake occurs in 2020∼2030 or 2220∼2230. As a result, based on the mechanism of faulting, this paper introduces a new analytical model to properly take the earthquake memory effect into account. A case study in Central Taiwan is given, which is considered to provide a more realistic result compared to that from the stationary stochastic process suggested by Poisson model.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
主出版物標題Geotechnical Safety and Risk IV - Proceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety and Risk, ISGSR 2013
頁面229-233
頁數5
出版狀態已出版 - 2014
事件4th International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety and Risk, ISGSR 2013 - Hong Kong, Hong Kong
持續時間: 4 12月 20136 12月 2013

出版系列

名字Geotechnical Safety and Risk IV - Proceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety and Risk, ISGSR 2013

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???event.eventtypes.event.conference???4th International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety and Risk, ISGSR 2013
國家/地區Hong Kong
城市Hong Kong
期間4/12/136/12/13

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