Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

1 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models that are applied to regions with subduction systems, including the depth component for forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To demonstrate the importance of depth component, a forecasting approach, which incorporates three-dimensional grids, is compared with an approach with two-dimensional cells. Through application to the two subduction regions, Ryukyu and Kanto, it is shown that the approaches with three-dimensional grids always demonstrate a better forecasting ability. I thus confirm the importance of depth dependency for forecasting, especially for applications to a subduction environment or a region with non-vertical seismogenic structures. In addition, this study discusses the role of time-dependent factors for forecasting models and concludes that time dependency only becomes crucial during the period with significant seismicity rate change that follows a large earthquake.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
頁(從 - 到)2177-2187
頁數11
期刊Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
16
發行號9
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 28 9月 2016

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