TY - JOUR

T1 - Evaluation of aftershock hazard of the 2018 M 6.2 Hualien earthquake

AU - Chen, Yuh Ing

AU - Liu, Jann Yenq

AU - Jian, Zih Syuan

N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Chinese Geoscience Union. All rights reserved.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - This paper presents a near real-time evaluation of earthquake hazard after the shallow ML 6.2 Hualien shock of depth 10.6 km occurred 2350 LT, 6 February 2018 at epicenter (24.10°N, 121.73°E). Since a large aftershock intends to bring up a new aftershock sequence, we develop a time-magnitude hazard function for the double aftershock sequences. Note that the double-sequence aftershock hazard model can be regarded as a generalization of the Reasenberg-Jones (RJ) model and hence is denoted by DSRJ. For a near real-time evaluation of the aftershock hazard in the golden window particularly for emergent rescue work, the DSRJ or RJ model is estimated based on early aftershock sequence and then the occurrence rate and number of the forthcoming aftershocks in 3 days after the Hualien main shock are forecasted. Results of a data analysis show that the DSRJ model is better than the RJ model on near real-time assessment of short-term aftershock hazard. This provides an evidence that the aftershocks occurred in a short time after the Hualien main shock may not be a single aftershock sequence.

AB - This paper presents a near real-time evaluation of earthquake hazard after the shallow ML 6.2 Hualien shock of depth 10.6 km occurred 2350 LT, 6 February 2018 at epicenter (24.10°N, 121.73°E). Since a large aftershock intends to bring up a new aftershock sequence, we develop a time-magnitude hazard function for the double aftershock sequences. Note that the double-sequence aftershock hazard model can be regarded as a generalization of the Reasenberg-Jones (RJ) model and hence is denoted by DSRJ. For a near real-time evaluation of the aftershock hazard in the golden window particularly for emergent rescue work, the DSRJ or RJ model is estimated based on early aftershock sequence and then the occurrence rate and number of the forthcoming aftershocks in 3 days after the Hualien main shock are forecasted. Results of a data analysis show that the DSRJ model is better than the RJ model on near real-time assessment of short-term aftershock hazard. This provides an evidence that the aftershocks occurred in a short time after the Hualien main shock may not be a single aftershock sequence.

KW - Bayesian information criterion

KW - Double-sequence aftershock hazard model

KW - Maximum likelihood estimate

KW - Reasenberg-Jones model

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85079672499&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.3319/TAO.2018.12.09.01

DO - 10.3319/TAO.2018.12.09.01

M3 - 期刊論文

AN - SCOPUS:85079672499

VL - 30

SP - 411

EP - 421

JO - Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

JF - Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

SN - 1017-0839

IS - 3

ER -