Epistemic uncertainty in on-site earthquake early warning on the use of PGV-PD3 empirical models

J. P. Wang, Yih Min Wu

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

4 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

From the literature, we found that PGV-PD3 regressions for on-site earthquake early warning (EEW) can be quite different depending on the presumption whether or not PGV-PD3 data from different regions should be "mixable" in regression analyses. As a result, this becomes a source of epistemic uncertainty in the selection of a PGV-PD3 empirical relationship for on-site EEW. This study is aimed at examining the influence of this epistemic uncertainty on EEW decision-making, and demonstrating it with an example on the use of PGV-PD3 models developed with data from Taiwan, Japan, and Southern California. The analysis shows that using the "global" PGV-PD3 relationship for Southern California would accompany a more conservative EEW decision-making (i.e., early warning is activated more frequently) than using the local empirical model developed with the PGV-PD3 data from Southern California only. However, the influence of this epistemic uncertainty on EEW is not that obvious for the cases of Taiwan and Japan.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
頁(從 - 到)126-130
頁數5
期刊Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
65
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 10月 2014

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