Enhanced ESM approach for duration forecasting in delayed projects

Delays occur commonly for construction projects. How to control projects before delays are desired by project managers. The Earned schedule method (ESM), a derivative of the earned value management method, forecasts project durations effectively regarding time and cost perspectives, that provides new performance measures for better project control. This study proposes an enhanced approach, ES_min⁺ method that is designed to solve the incapability of two existing earned schedule methods, to instantly identify schedule delays when the delayed activity is on a non-critical path. To validate the capability of the proposed approach, this study examines the factors that affect the accuracy of duration forecasting, including performance factors, project seriality, and project delay conditions. The enhanced ESM-based approach yields more precise project duration forecasts, particularly in situations where delays occur.