Earthquake recurrence assessment of the active Shanchiao Fault in northern Taiwan

Yun Xu, J. P. Wang

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

1 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)


The Shanchiao Fault is an active normal fault located in the Taipei metropolis, northern Taiwan. Faulting activities have been observed from both the long-term geological data and the short-term GPS surface deformation along the fault. Particularly, with recent studies suggesting the potential of triggering an Mw 7.0-plus earthquake, the Shanchiao Fault is posing a direct seismic threat to the most important, densely populated Taipei metropolitan area in Taiwan. As a result, this study aims to evaluate the earthquake recurrence probability of the Shanchiao Fault, in an attempt to estimate the seismic hazard and help in decision-making for the Taiwan government. Given the capability of capturing the stochastic nature of tectonic stress accumulating, this study used the Brownian model to calculate the earthquake recurrence of the Shanchiao Fault. From the analysis, the recurrence probabilities of the Shanchiao Fault are determined at 8.3 and 17.4% for the next 50 and 100 years, respectively.

頁(從 - 到)835-851
期刊Natural Hazards
出版狀態已出版 - 1 9月 2017


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