Delineating and predicting changes in rice cropping systems using multi-temporal MODIS data in Myanmar

Rice is the most important source of livelihood for people in Myanmar. This study aimed to delineate the country’s rice cropping systems from MODIS data and predict future changes using a Markov cellular automata (MCA) model. The mapping results compared with the ground reference data indicated overall accuracies and kappa coefficients generally higher than 89 percent and 0.79, respectively. These results were reaffirmed by a strong association between the MODIS-based rice area and the government’s rice area statistics (R² > 0.8). From 2001–2002 to 2013–2014, the country’s rice area increased by 562,850 ha, mainly attributed to the increase in the double-cropped rice area from 2001–2002 to 2007–2008. The changes in rice area predicted for 2025–2026 indicated that the rice area would increase by 5.9 percent (445,750 ha), from 7,618,800 ha in 2013–2014 to 8,064,550 ha in 2025–2026. Of this amount, double-cropped rice contributed 21.1 percent (420,500 ha) and single-cropped rice contributed only 0.4 percent (25,250 ha).