Default risk-based probabilistic decision model on natural disasters risk control

C. P. Tseng, W. L. Chiang, Wen Ko Hsu, Dung Mou Hung, C. H. Tsai, C. W. Chen

研究成果: 書貢獻/報告類型會議論文篇章同行評審

6 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

This paper describes how risk-based risk control allocation model works. We begin by discussing the economic rational for allocating risk control in a diversified organization like enterprises. Considering a probability model for risk control decision making under uncertainty and risk, we propose a model involving stochastic total loss amount constraints with respect to various tolerable default level. Our main objective is to develop a method that would allow shaping the risk associated with risk control outcomes. The direct and indirect losses caused by the simulated disasters can be estimated using the engineering and financial analysis model. Basing on the model, we can generate exceeding probability (EP) curve and then calculate how much loss will be ceased or transferred to other entities, if somehow spending budgets on risk control actions. Optimal natural disasters risk control arrangement with probabilistic formulation is explained in this paper. Results from the proposed formulations are compared in case studies.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
主出版物標題Proceedings of the 17th IASTED International Conference on Modelling and Simulation
頁面219-223
頁數5
出版狀態已出版 - 2006
事件17th IASTED International Conference on Modelling and Simulation - Montreal, QC, Canada
持續時間: 24 5月 200626 5月 2006

出版系列

名字Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Modelling and Simulation
2006
ISSN(列印)1021-8181

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???event.eventtypes.event.conference???17th IASTED International Conference on Modelling and Simulation
國家/地區Canada
城市Montreal, QC
期間24/05/0626/05/06

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