Best-Estimate Return Period of the Sanchiao Earthquake in Taipei: Bayesian Approach

J. P. Wang, Su Chin Chang, Yun Xu

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

3 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

It is believed that the Sanchiao fault in Taipei, the most important city in Taiwan, has caused several major earthquakes. In the literature, one study suggested return periods of the Sanchiao earthquake of 543, 568, and 746 years, with another concluding that the active fault should have induced three major earthquakes in a period of 2,600 years in the Holocene. Therefore, like many Bayesian applications, this study aims to develop a novel Bayesian algorithm for integrating the different sources of data to develop a new Bayesian estimate for the target problem. From the analysis, a Bayesian inference suggests a return period of the Sanchiao earthquake in Taipei of 634 years, which, for example, leads to a best-estimate probability of 7.6% for the recurrence of the Sanchiao earthquake in the next 50 years in the most important city in Taiwan.

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文章編號06015001
期刊Natural Hazards Review
17
發行號1
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 1 2月 2016

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