TY - JOUR

T1 - Best-Estimate Return Period of the Sanchiao Earthquake in Taipei

T2 - Bayesian Approach

AU - Wang, J. P.

AU - Chang, Su Chin

AU - Xu, Yun

N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

PY - 2016/2/1

Y1 - 2016/2/1

N2 - It is believed that the Sanchiao fault in Taipei, the most important city in Taiwan, has caused several major earthquakes. In the literature, one study suggested return periods of the Sanchiao earthquake of 543, 568, and 746 years, with another concluding that the active fault should have induced three major earthquakes in a period of 2,600 years in the Holocene. Therefore, like many Bayesian applications, this study aims to develop a novel Bayesian algorithm for integrating the different sources of data to develop a new Bayesian estimate for the target problem. From the analysis, a Bayesian inference suggests a return period of the Sanchiao earthquake in Taipei of 634 years, which, for example, leads to a best-estimate probability of 7.6% for the recurrence of the Sanchiao earthquake in the next 50 years in the most important city in Taiwan.

AB - It is believed that the Sanchiao fault in Taipei, the most important city in Taiwan, has caused several major earthquakes. In the literature, one study suggested return periods of the Sanchiao earthquake of 543, 568, and 746 years, with another concluding that the active fault should have induced three major earthquakes in a period of 2,600 years in the Holocene. Therefore, like many Bayesian applications, this study aims to develop a novel Bayesian algorithm for integrating the different sources of data to develop a new Bayesian estimate for the target problem. From the analysis, a Bayesian inference suggests a return period of the Sanchiao earthquake in Taipei of 634 years, which, for example, leads to a best-estimate probability of 7.6% for the recurrence of the Sanchiao earthquake in the next 50 years in the most important city in Taiwan.

KW - Bayesian approach

KW - Earthquake probability

KW - Sanchiao fault

KW - Taipei

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84954545812&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000196

DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000196

M3 - 期刊論文

AN - SCOPUS:84954545812

VL - 17

JO - Natural Hazards Review

JF - Natural Hazards Review

SN - 1527-6988

IS - 1

M1 - 06015001

ER -