Applying the Temporal Abstraction Technique to the Prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease Progression

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has attracted considerable attention in the public health domain in recent years. Researchers have exerted considerable effort in attempting to identify critical factors that may affect the deterioration of CKD. In clinical practice, the physical conditions of CKD patients are regularly recorded. The data of CKD patients are recorded as a high-dimensional time-series. Therefore, how to analyze these time-series data for identifying the factors affecting CKD deterioration becomes an interesting topic. This study aims at developing prediction models for stage 4 CKD patients to determine whether their eGFR level decreased to less than 15 ml/min/1.73m² (end-stage renal disease, ESRD) 6 months after collecting their final laboratory test information by evaluating time-related features. A total of 463 CKD patients collected from January 2004 to December 2013 at one of the biggest dialysis centers in southern Taiwan were included in the experimental evaluation. We integrated the temporal abstraction (TA) technique with data mining methods to develop CKD progression prediction models. Specifically, the TA technique was used to extract vital features (TA-related features) from high-dimensional time-series data, after which several data mining techniques, including C4.5, classification and regression tree (CART), support vector machine, and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), were applied to develop CKD progression prediction models. The results revealed that incorporating temporal information into the prediction models increased the efficiency of the models. The AdaBoost+CART model exhibited the most accurate prediction among the constructed models (Accuracy: 0.662, Sensitivity: 0.620, Specificity: 0.704, and AUC: 0.715). A number of TA-related features were found to be associated with the deterioration of renal function. These features can provide further clinical information to explain the progression of CKD. TA-related features extracted by long-term tracking of changes in laboratory test values can enable early diagnosis of ESRD. The developed models using these features can facilitate medical personnel in making clinical decisions to provide appropriate diagnoses and improved care quality to patients with CKD.