A procedure estimating and smoothing earthquake rate in a region with the Bayesian approach

研究成果: 會議貢獻類型會議論文同行評審

摘要

Reliable instrumentation earthquake data are considered limited compared to the long return period of earthquakes, especially the major events. As a result, earthquake rate estimating could become unrealistic based on the limited earthquake observation with classical statistics algorithms. For example, given no M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recorded in the past 50 years, a best-estimate for the earthquake rate around the region should be zero, and such a zero estimate is considered unconvincing owing to the short observation period and long earthquake return periods. In this paper, a Bayesian calculation is proposed to earthquake rate estimating and smoothing given a reliable, but relatively short, earthquake catalog compiled with instrumentation data recorded since the last century. The key to this Bayesian application to engineering seismology is to utilize the observed rates in neighboring zones as the prior information, then updated with the likelihood function governed by the earthquake observation in a target zone.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
出版狀態已出版 - 2014
事件12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2014 - Honolulu, United States
持續時間: 22 6月 201427 6月 2014

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???event.eventtypes.event.conference???12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2014
國家/地區United States
城市Honolulu
期間22/06/1427/06/14

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