## 摘要

Since the year 1973, more than 54,000 M _{w} ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have occurred around Taiwan, and their magnitude-frequency relationship was found following with the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law with b value equal to 0.923 from the least-square calculation. However, using this b value with the McGuire-Arabasz algorithm results in some disagreement between observations and expectations in magnitude probability. This study introduces a simple approach to optimize the b value for better modeling of the magnitude probability, and its effectiveness is demonstrated in this paper. The result shows that the optimal b value can better model the observed magnitude distribution, compared with two customary methods. For example, given magnitude threshold = 5.0 and maximum magnitude = 8.0, the optimal b value of 0.835 is better than 0.923 from the least-square calculation and 0.913 from maximum likelihood estimation for simulating the earthquake's magnitude probability distribution around Taiwan.

原文 | ???core.languages.en_GB??? |
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頁（從 - 到） | 837-850 |

頁數 | 14 |

期刊 | Natural Hazards |

卷 | 71 |

發行號 | 1 |

DOIs | |

出版狀態 | 已出版 - 3月 2014 |