A Bayesian approach to estimate the probability distribution of earthquake size of a given active fault

研究成果: 書貢獻/報告類型會議論文篇章同行評審

摘要

Different from conventional methods, the Bayesian approach is a unique algorithm to develop an estimate considering both the prior information and limited samples. Implicitly, the Bayesian calculation is usually employed on a condition that the observation data are too limited to develop a reliable estimate. This paper presents a Bayesian application to earthquake engineering to estimate the size of recurring earthquakes induced by the Meishan fault in centralTaiwan.With the prior information including best-estimate rupture width, rupture area, and two empirical models, and with one only earthquake observation in year 1906, the Bayesian calculation suggests that the size of recurring Meishan earthquake should be in Mw 6.48±0.21.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
主出版物標題Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics - Proc. of the 14th International Conference of International Association for Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics, IACMAG 2014
發行者Taylor and Francis - Balkema
頁面869-874
頁數6
ISBN(列印)9781138001480
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 2015
事件14th International Conference of International Association for Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics, IACMAG 2014 - Kyoto, Japan
持續時間: 22 9月 201425 9月 2014

出版系列

名字Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics - Proceedings of the 14th Int. Conference of International Association for Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics, IACMAG 2014

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???event.eventtypes.event.conference???14th International Conference of International Association for Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics, IACMAG 2014
國家/地區Japan
城市Kyoto
期間22/09/1425/09/14

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