A bayesian analysis for the seismic data on Taiwan

Tsai Hung Fan, Eng Nan Kuo

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

1 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

A Bayesian approach is used to analyze the seismic events with magnitudes at least 4.7 on Taiwan. Following the idea proposed by Ogata (1988, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, 9-27), an epidemic model for the process of occurrence times given the observed magnitude values is considered, incorporated with gamma prior distributions for the parameters in the model, while the hyper-parameters of the prior are essentially determined by the seismic data in an earlier period. Bayesian inference is made on the conditional intensity function via Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The results yield acceptable accuracies in predicting large earthquake events within short time periods.

原文???core.languages.en_GB???
頁(從 - 到)599-609
頁數11
期刊Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics
56
發行號4
DOIs
出版狀態已出版 - 12月 2004

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