台灣颱風路徑與風場之蒙地卡羅模擬

Since Taiwan is located on the tracks of typhoons originated in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, typhoon is the most frequent and devastating natural disaster in Taiwan. This study develops a Monte Carlo model to simulate the tracks and wind fields of landfall typhoons in Taiwan. The Monte Carlo model is based on the historical data of the moving speed, direction and central pressure of typhoons between 1970 ~ 2016, collected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the US. The percentages of the simulated paths of typhoons compare favorably with the observed paths of typhoons by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. Then the wind speeds of typhoons were predicted by the parametric model of Holland (1980), and compared favorably with the observed wind speeds near the northern coast of Taiwan. This model can be used to compute the probability of extreme wind speeds and to assess the risk of wind-related hazards in Taiwan.