Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan

C. H. Chan, Y. M. Wu, C. T. Cheng, P. S. Lin, Y. C. Wu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations


Here, we propose a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and apply it to Hualien City, Taiwan. A declustering catalog from 1940 to 2005 was used to build up a long-term seismicity rate model using a smoothing Kernel function. We also evaluated short-term seismicity rate perturbations according to the rate-and-state friction model, and the Coulomb stress changes imparted by earthquakes from 2006 to 2010. We assessed both long-term and short-term probabilistic seismic hazards by considering ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes. The long-term seismic hazard in Hualien City gave a PGA (peak ground acceleration) of 0.46 g for the 2.1 ‰ annual exceedance probability. The result is similar to the levels determined in previous studies. Seismic hazards were significantly elevated following the 2007 ML Combining double low line5.8 earthquake that occurred approximately 10 km from Hualien City. This work presents an assessment of a suitable mechanism for time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard determinations using an updated earthquake catalog. Using minor model assumptions, our approach provides a suitable basis for rapid re-evaluations and will benefit decision-makers and public officials regarding seismic hazard mitigation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1143-1158
Number of pages16
JournalNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Issue number5
StatePublished - 2013


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