Statistical evidences of seismo-ionospheric precursors applying receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve on the GPS total electron content in China

Yuh Ing Chen, Chi Shen Huang, Jann Yenq Liu

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8 Scopus citations

Abstract

Evidence of the seismo-ionospheric precursor (SIP) is reported by statistically investigating the relationship between the total electron content (TEC) in global ionosphere map (GIM) and 56 M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes during 1998-2013 in China. A median-based method together with the z test is employed to examine the TEC variations 30 days before and after the earthquake. It is found that the TEC significantly decreases 0600-1000 LT 1-6 days before the earthquake, and anomalously increases in 3 time periods of 1300-1700 LT 12-15 days; 0000-0500 LT 15-17 days; and 0500-0900 LT 22-28 days before the earthquake. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is then used to evaluate the efficiency of TEC for predicting M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes in China during a specified time period. Statistical results suggest that the SIP is the significant TEC reduction in the morning period of 0600-1000 LT. The SIP is further confirmed since the area under the ROC curve is positively associated with the earthquake magnitude.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)393-402
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Asian Earth Sciences
Volume114
DOIs
StatePublished - 15 Dec 2015

Keywords

  • AUC
  • ROC curve
  • Seismo-ionospheric precursors
  • Total electron content
  • Youden index
  • Z test

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