Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes

Siew Ann Cheong; Teck Liang Tan; Chien Chih Chen; Wu Lung Chang; Zheng Liu; Lock Yue Chew; Peter M.A. Sloot; Neil F. Johnson

doi:10.1038/srep03624

Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes

Siew Ann Cheong, Teck Liang Tan, Chien Chih Chen, Wu Lung Chang, Zheng Liu, Lock Yue Chew, Peter M.A. Sloot, Neil F. Johnson

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

Original language	English
Article number	3624
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/srep03624
State	Published - 10 Jan 2014

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title = "Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes",

abstract = "Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.",

author = "Cheong, {Siew Ann} and Tan, {Teck Liang} and Chen, {Chien Chih} and Chang, {Wu Lung} and Zheng Liu and Chew, {Lock Yue} and Sloot, {Peter M.A.} and Johnson, {Neil F.}",

note = "Funding Information: P.M.A.S. acknowledges a grant from the {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}Leading Scientist Program{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} of the Government of the Russian Federation, under contract 11.G34.31.0019. P.M.A.S. also acknowledges the support from the FET-Proactive grant TOPDRIM, number FP7-ICT-318121.",

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AU - Cheong, Siew Ann

AU - Tan, Teck Liang

AU - Chen, Chien Chih

AU - Chang, Wu Lung

AU - Liu, Zheng

AU - Chew, Lock Yue

AU - Sloot, Peter M.A.

AU - Johnson, Neil F.

N1 - Funding Information: P.M.A.S. acknowledges a grant from the ‘‘Leading Scientist Program’’ of the Government of the Russian Federation, under contract 11.G34.31.0019. P.M.A.S. also acknowledges the support from the FET-Proactive grant TOPDRIM, number FP7-ICT-318121.

PY - 2014/1/10

Y1 - 2014/1/10

N2 - Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

AB - Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

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Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes

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