Seismic hazard assessment on NPP sites in Taiwan through an observation-oriented Monte Carlo simulation

Jui Pin Wang, Duruo Huang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

This paper uses Monte Carlo Simulation to evaluate the seismic hazard in two nuclear power plants sites in Taiwan. This approach is different from the two commonly-used methods, featuring the direct use of observed earthquakes to develop magnitude and distance probability functions. Those earthquakes with larger sizes and closer to the site are considered capable of causing damage on engineered structures. The result shows that even though two NPP sites in Taiwan are only 30 km away from each other, NPP site 4 is situated with the seismic hazard four-time as large as NPP site 1. Given our limited understanding and the complicated, random earthquake process, none of a seismic hazard analysis is perfect without challenge. The accountability of seismic hazard analysis relates to analytical transparency, traceability, etc., not to analytical complexity and popularity.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationScalable Uncertainty Management - 6th International Conference, SUM 2012, Proceedings
Pages641-646
Number of pages6
DOIs
StatePublished - 2012
Event6th International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management, SUM 2012 - Marburg, Germany
Duration: 17 Sep 201219 Sep 2012

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume7520 LNAI
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

Conference6th International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management, SUM 2012
Country/TerritoryGermany
CityMarburg
Period17/09/1219/09/12

Keywords

  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • NPP
  • Seismic hazard analysis
  • Taiwan

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