TY - GEN
T1 - Seismic hazard analysis with the Bayesian approach
AU - Wang, J. P.
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - The Bayesian approach is of increasing popularity in engineering probability assessment. The key purpose of the method is to develop a new estimate by integrating observations or samples, along with other sources of prior data. By applying the approach to seismic hazard analysis, we developed and introduced the Bayesian seismic hazard analysis in this paper, including the algorithm, and a case study from Taipei City. The Bayesian analysis shows that based on earthquake strongmotion samples in the past 15 years (i.e., observation), and the return periods of 261 and 475 years reported in two studies (priors), the Bayesian estimate on the return period of PGA ≥ 0.25 g at the study site is equal to 339 years, a new estimate using the Bayesian approach to integrate limited earthquake strong-motion observations, with indirect evidence and estimates.
AB - The Bayesian approach is of increasing popularity in engineering probability assessment. The key purpose of the method is to develop a new estimate by integrating observations or samples, along with other sources of prior data. By applying the approach to seismic hazard analysis, we developed and introduced the Bayesian seismic hazard analysis in this paper, including the algorithm, and a case study from Taipei City. The Bayesian analysis shows that based on earthquake strongmotion samples in the past 15 years (i.e., observation), and the return periods of 261 and 475 years reported in two studies (priors), the Bayesian estimate on the return period of PGA ≥ 0.25 g at the study site is equal to 339 years, a new estimate using the Bayesian approach to integrate limited earthquake strong-motion observations, with indirect evidence and estimates.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84978731591&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - 會議論文篇章
AN - SCOPUS:84978731591
T3 - 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015
BT - 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015
PB - University of British Columbia
T2 - 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2012
Y2 - 12 July 2015 through 15 July 2015
ER -