Risk assessment for the application of short-term climate outlooks on spring land Fallow decisions: A case study of the Taoyuan area

Ray Shyan Wu, Ming Chun Tsai, Qui Zhan Huang, Shao Yiu Hsu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

During drought periods, the shortage of water resource causes economic losses as well as the domestic water usage. The impacts of drought events can be reduced by applying short-term climate forecasts. The fallow while drought event occures is an important strategy to reduce the impacts on both industrial and domestic water usages. Therefore, the decision on timing of the fallow becomes an important issue of the water management during droughts. In this study, the seasonal climate forecast was provided by Central Weather Bureau and the daily weather data was derived from the meteorological synthesis model. We inputted the weather data into a hydrological model to simulate the inflow of the Shihmen Reservoir and used a system dynamics simulation model to simulate the water supply, water demand, and the water level in the reservoir. By combining the water level in reservoir and historical exceedance probability inflow, we calculated the probability of the shortage rate of agricultural water. The forecast uncertainty is estimated by Bayesian theorem with the accuracy of weather forecast. We investiaged the effect of applying seasonal forcast data on the fallow decision based on three scenarios: no forecast, 100% accurate forecast and forecast with uncertainty. Our result shows that the risk of decision failure can be decreased by postponing the timing of the fallow decision. The benefit of improving accuracy of the forecast on the fallow decision is significant. However, by far, due to the low forcaseing accuracy, the effect of applying the forecast with uncertainty on the fallow decision is insignificant.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-11
Number of pages11
JournalTaiwan Water Conservancy
Volume63
Issue number4
StatePublished - 2015

Keywords

  • Bayes' theorem
  • General watershed loading functions
  • Seasonal climate forecast
  • System dynamics model
  • Westher Generator

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