TY - JOUR
T1 - Repeatable source, site, and path effects on the standard deviation for empirical ground-motion prediction models
AU - Lin, Po Shen
AU - Chiou, Brian
AU - Abrahamson, Norman
AU - Walling, Melanie
AU - Lee, Chyi Tyi
AU - Cheng, Chin Tung
PY - 2011/10/1
Y1 - 2011/10/1
N2 - In this study, we quantify the reduction in the standard deviation for empirical ground-motion prediction models by removing ergodic assumption.We partition the modeling error (residual) into five components, three of which represent the repeatable source-location-specific, site-specific, and path-specific deviations from the population mean. A variance estimation procedure of these error components is developed for use with a set of recordings from earthquakes not heavily clustered in space.With most source locations and propagation paths sampled only once, we opt to exploit the spatial correlation of residuals to estimate the variances associated with the path-specific and the source-location-specific deviations. The estimation procedure is applied to ground-motion amplitudes from 64 shallow earthquakes in Taiwan recorded at 285 sites with at least 10 recordings per site. The estimated variance components are used to quantify the reduction in aleatory variability that can be used in hazard analysis for a single site and for a single path. For peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations at periods of 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, and 3.0 s, we find that the singlesite standard deviations are 9%-14% smaller than the total standard deviation, whereas the single-path standard deviations are 39%-47% smaller.
AB - In this study, we quantify the reduction in the standard deviation for empirical ground-motion prediction models by removing ergodic assumption.We partition the modeling error (residual) into five components, three of which represent the repeatable source-location-specific, site-specific, and path-specific deviations from the population mean. A variance estimation procedure of these error components is developed for use with a set of recordings from earthquakes not heavily clustered in space.With most source locations and propagation paths sampled only once, we opt to exploit the spatial correlation of residuals to estimate the variances associated with the path-specific and the source-location-specific deviations. The estimation procedure is applied to ground-motion amplitudes from 64 shallow earthquakes in Taiwan recorded at 285 sites with at least 10 recordings per site. The estimated variance components are used to quantify the reduction in aleatory variability that can be used in hazard analysis for a single site and for a single path. For peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations at periods of 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, and 3.0 s, we find that the singlesite standard deviations are 9%-14% smaller than the total standard deviation, whereas the single-path standard deviations are 39%-47% smaller.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79957926358&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1785/0120090312
DO - 10.1785/0120090312
M3 - 期刊論文
AN - SCOPUS:79957926358
SN - 0037-1106
VL - 101
SP - 2281
EP - 2295
JO - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
IS - 5
ER -