Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly

Yu Sheng Sun, Hsien Chi Li, Ling Yun Chang, Zheng Kai Ye, Chien Chih Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations


Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in this study in consideration of its practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. Real-time PSHA follows the traditional PSHA framework, but the statistic occurrence rate is substituted by time-dependent seismic source probability. Over the last decade, the pattern informatics (PI) method has been developed as a time-dependent probability model of seismic source. We employed this method as a function of timedependent seismic source probability, and we selected two major earthquakes in Taiwan as examples to explore realtime PSHA. These are the Meinong earthquake (ML 6.6) of 5 February 2016 and the Hualien earthquake (ML 6.2) of 6 February 2018. The seismic intensity maps produced by the real-time PSHA method facilitated the forecast of the maximum expected seismic intensity for the following 90 d. Compared with real ground motion data from the P-alert network, our seismic intensity forecasting maps showed considerable effectiveness. This result indicated that real-time PSHA is practicable and provides useful information that could be employed in the prevention of earthquake disasters.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)743-753
Number of pages11
JournalNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Issue number3
StatePublished - 23 Mar 2020


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