Probability-based PGA estimations using the double-lognormal distribution: Including site-specific seismic hazard analysis for four sites in Taiwan

J. P. Wang, Logan Brant, Yih Min Wu, Hamed Taheri

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Scopus citations

Abstract

This study develops a probabilistic approach for examining site-specific seismic hazards using data from 438 M w≥5.5 earthquakes and attenuation relationships local to the region around Taiwan. These are combined to generate semi-observed peak ground accelerations, in a form which can be modeled by a double-lognormal distribution. This model, which satisfies statistical goodness-of-fit, provides the relationship between the exceedance probability and a given ground motion level. The study includes site-specific seismic hazard analysis for four nuclear power plant sites in Taiwan. The results show that the seismic hazards at the four sites are not the same. While no seismic hazard analysis is without challenge, a troublesome trend appears that many applications of decision making are being influenced by the complexity of the calculation, instead of how well the fundamentals of the analysis are understood and can be verified. The study provides an analysis which is not overly complicated, is in good agreement with an empirical control, and offers transparency, traceability, and verifiability.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)177-183
Number of pages7
JournalSoil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
Volume42
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2012

Keywords

  • Double-lognormal distribution
  • Seismic hazard
  • Semi-observed peak ground acceleration

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Probability-based PGA estimations using the double-lognormal distribution: Including site-specific seismic hazard analysis for four sites in Taiwan'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this