This study first presents the series of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the three major cities in Taiwan. The PGAs are back-calculated from an earthquake catalog with the use of ground motion models. The maximums of the 84th percentile (mean + one standard deviation) PGA since 1900 are 1. 03, 0. 36, and 0. 10 g, in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, respectively. Statistical goodness-of-fit testing shows that the series of PGA follow a double-lognormal distribution. Using the verified probability distribution, a probabilistic analysis was developed in this paper, and used to evaluate probability-based seismic hazard. Accordingly, given a PGA equal to 0. 5 g, the annual exceedance probabilities are 0. 56, 0. 46, and 0. 23 % in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, respectively; for PGA equal to 1. 0 g, the probabilities become 0. 18, 0. 14, and 0. 09 %. As a result, this analysis indicates the city in South Taiwan is associated with relatively lower seismic hazard, compared with those in Central and North Taiwan.
- Double-lognormal distribution
- Probability-based seismic hazard
- Three major cities in Taiwan