Optimization approach for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting

Min Hao Wu, J. P. Wang, I. Chia Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Debris flow is a natural hazard typically triggered by heavy rainfall. Previous research aimed at forecasting the occurrence of debris flows have led to the development of several rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for different areas using the second-percentile method that allows a missed-alarm probability of up to 2%, while disregarding the occurrence of false alarms. The current study aims to develop rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting taking into account both missed alarms and false alarms. Specifically, the new optimization approach seeks to determine the optimal duration-intensity threshold associated with the lowest missed- and false-alarm probabilities combined. In addition to the methodology, a case study is presented to show that the new optimization approach is feasible for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds in debris flow forecasting, and is more efficient than the method currently in use, which is associated with a higher probability of missed and false alarms combined.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2495-2501
Number of pages7
JournalBulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment
Volume78
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jun 2019

Keywords

  • Debris flow
  • False alarm
  • Missed alarm
  • Probability
  • Rainfall intensity and duration

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