Member Formation Methods Evaluation for a Storm Surge Ensemble Forecast System in Taiwan

Chun Wei Lin, Tso Ren Wu, Yu Lin Tsai, Shu Chun Chuang, Chi Hao Chu, Chuen Teyr Terng

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The forecast of typhoon tracks remains uncertain and is positively related to the accuracy of the storm surge forecast. The storm surge prediction error increases dramatically when the forecast track error is larger than 100 km. This study aims to develop an ensemble storm surge prediction system using parametric weather models to account for the uncertainty in typhoon track prediction. The storm surge model adopted in this study is COMCOT-SS storm surge forecast system. Two methods are introduced and analyzed to generate the ensemble members in this study. One is from the weather ensemble prediction system (WEPS), and the other is from the error distribution of the deterministic forecasts (EDF). The ensemble prediction results show that the ensemble mean of WEPS performs similarly to the deterministic forecast. However, the maximum surge height of WEPS is often lower than one from EDF. The verification results suggest that, for disaster prevention, EDF provides stronger warnings to the coastal region than WEPS. However, it may provide overestimated forecasts in some cases.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1826
JournalWater (Switzerland)
Volume15
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2023

Keywords

  • COMCOT-SS
  • CWB Taiwan
  • ensemble prediction
  • error distribution of the deterministic forecasts (EDF)
  • operational forecast
  • storm surge
  • weather ensemble prediction system (WEPS)

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