Measuring dynamic competitiveness among container ports: An autoregressive distributed lag approach

Chien Wen Shen, Heng Chi Lee, Ching Chih Chou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations


This paper proposes a method for applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to the analysis of port competitiveness to overcome the methodological limitations of the commonly used time series approach, which may cause inconsistent orders of integration or large standard errors. An empirical analysis based on the ARDL approach was also conducted to investigate the competitive relationships among the top five worldwide container ports: Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Busan. Their long-term relationships were first evaluated by the bounds testing procedures with three alternative models. Then the long-term ARDL models were developed to understand their long-term equilibriums. In addition, we estimated short-run dynamics by the ARDL model's error correction form. Our approach can provide maritime transport practitioners a practical tool for reliable port competition analysis and container demand forecasting.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)637-651
Number of pages15
JournalInternational Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics
Issue number6
StatePublished - 2013


  • Autoregressive distributed lag model
  • Container transport
  • ECM
  • Error correction model
  • Port competition


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