Intelligent forecasting of S&P 500 time series - A self-organizing fuzzy approach

Chunshien Li, Hsin Hui Cheng

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Stock index time series may allow investors to become aware of the change of stock market. In the paper, we aim at forecasting S&P 500 Index, one of the most representative stock indices in United States. A self-organizing fuzzy-based approach for intelligent predictor is used. The design for the predictor is divided into the structure and parameter learning stages. The FCM-Based Splitting Algorithm is used to determine the optimal number of fuzzy rules for the predictor. Two hybrid learning algorithms, the PSO-RLSE and PSO-RLSE-PSO methods, are used for the parameter learning of the predictor, respectively. To test the proposed approach, we devise experiments to compare the performances by the intelligent predictor trained with the two learning algorithms, respectively. Moreover, an additional experiment for different input orders is conducted to see the influence on the performance. The excellent performances in accuracy by the proposed intelligent approach are exposed.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIntelligent Information and Database Systems - Third International Conference, ACIIDS 2011, Proceedings
Pages411-420
Number of pages10
EditionPART 2
DOIs
StatePublished - 2011
Event3rd International Conference on Intelligent Information and Database Systems, ACIIDS 2011 - Daegu, Korea, Republic of
Duration: 20 Apr 201122 Apr 2011

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
NumberPART 2
Volume6592 LNAI
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

Conference3rd International Conference on Intelligent Information and Database Systems, ACIIDS 2011
Country/TerritoryKorea, Republic of
CityDaegu
Period20/04/1122/04/11

Keywords

  • Clustering
  • Forecasting
  • Fuzzy system
  • Hybrid learning
  • Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)
  • Recursive Least Squares Estimator (RLSE)

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