Hazard assessment of volcanic ballistic impacts at Mt Chihshin, Tatun Volcano Group, northern Taiwan

This study investigates the hazard posed by Volcanic Ballistic Projectiles (VBPs) in the area surrounding Mt Chihshin, Tatun Volcano Group, northern Taiwan. Based on the volcano’s current evolutionary stage, we consider two types of volcanic activity during which VBPs can be generated, namely hydrothermal and vulcanian eruptions. Hydrothermal eruptions may occur after a sudden decompression of water in the hydrothermal system of the volcano, typically due to mass removal processes, while vulcanian eruptions are caused by solidified magma that plugs the eruptive vent and gets blasted when this caprock is no longer able to withstand the pressure in the volcanic conduit. Initial velocities of ejected VBPs were estimated for each type of activity based on physical models and inserted as initial conditions to the equations that describe their motion. A hydrothermal eruption is assumed to occur at the NW flank of Mt Chihshin near the Hsiaoyiokeng fumarole, which is a place prone to flank instability, while a vulcanian eruption is assumed to originate from a central vent at the peak of Mt Chihshin. Modeling results suggest that the radii of the areas impacted by VBPs vary between 0.1 and 1.1 km for a hydrothermal eruption, while they become 1.4–5.1 km for a vulcanian eruption. Within these areas, roads, hiking trails, and public buildings lie within the impact areas; therefore, VBPs may potentially cause damage, injury, and even casualties.