Forecasting Methodology Based on Alternative Presentation of the Gutenberg–Richter Relation

Kuei Pao Chen, Wen Yen Chang, Horng Yuan Yen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The main purpose of this study is to propose an innovative methodology to forecast the cumulative probability of future larger earthquakes for any given magnitude. It is based on applying an innovative approach to explicitly incorporate the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation, replacing the conventional Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relation, which is only expressed by the arithmetic mean. The new representation of the G–R relation can provide the median annual seismicity rate and upper and lower bounds of recurrence time period for future larger earthquakes in different regions of Taiwan. Subsequently, the logarithmic mean is found to have a more well-behaved lognormal distribution. The selected crustal earthquake data for 3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.0 are used to obtain alternative Gutenberg–Richter relations for different regions. The results are as follows: log 10N= 5.74 - 1.07 Mw± (- 0.18 + 0.12 Mw) in and Taiwan; log 10N= 5.08 - 1.07 Mw± (0.23 + 0.05 Mw) for northeastern Taiwan offshore; log 10N= 5.48 - 0.95 Mw± (- 0.32 + 0.14 Mw) for eastern Taiwan offshore; log 10N= 4.57 - 0.84 Mw± (0.07 + 0.07 Mw) for southeastern Taiwan offshore. These results can be used for preventing and mitigating seismic hazards.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3411-3423
Number of pages13
JournalPure and Applied Geophysics
Issue number8
StatePublished - 1 Aug 2019


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