Evidence in support of seismic hazard following Poisson distribution

J. P. Wang, Su Chin Chang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Unlike earthquake frequency that was proved following the Poisson distribution, seismic hazard (the annual rate of earthquake ground motions) is assumed to be the same type of random variables without tangible support. Instead of using total-probability algorithms currently employed, this study applied Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to obtain the probability function of seismic hazard, and then compared it to the Poisson distribution to see if it is really close to the model prediction as assumed. On the basis of a benchmark calculation, the analysis shows a very good agreement between the two, providing some evidence for the first time that seismic hazard should follow the Poisson distribution, although the relationship has been commonly employed in earthquake studies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)207-216
Number of pages10
JournalPhysica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Volume424
DOIs
StatePublished - 15 Apr 2015

Keywords

  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Seismic hazard
  • The Poisson distribution

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