TY - JOUR
T1 - Epistemic uncertainty in on-site earthquake early warning on the use of PGV-PD3 empirical models
AU - Wang, J. P.
AU - Wu, Yih Min
PY - 2014/10
Y1 - 2014/10
N2 - From the literature, we found that PGV-PD3 regressions for on-site earthquake early warning (EEW) can be quite different depending on the presumption whether or not PGV-PD3 data from different regions should be "mixable" in regression analyses. As a result, this becomes a source of epistemic uncertainty in the selection of a PGV-PD3 empirical relationship for on-site EEW. This study is aimed at examining the influence of this epistemic uncertainty on EEW decision-making, and demonstrating it with an example on the use of PGV-PD3 models developed with data from Taiwan, Japan, and Southern California. The analysis shows that using the "global" PGV-PD3 relationship for Southern California would accompany a more conservative EEW decision-making (i.e., early warning is activated more frequently) than using the local empirical model developed with the PGV-PD3 data from Southern California only. However, the influence of this epistemic uncertainty on EEW is not that obvious for the cases of Taiwan and Japan.
AB - From the literature, we found that PGV-PD3 regressions for on-site earthquake early warning (EEW) can be quite different depending on the presumption whether or not PGV-PD3 data from different regions should be "mixable" in regression analyses. As a result, this becomes a source of epistemic uncertainty in the selection of a PGV-PD3 empirical relationship for on-site EEW. This study is aimed at examining the influence of this epistemic uncertainty on EEW decision-making, and demonstrating it with an example on the use of PGV-PD3 models developed with data from Taiwan, Japan, and Southern California. The analysis shows that using the "global" PGV-PD3 relationship for Southern California would accompany a more conservative EEW decision-making (i.e., early warning is activated more frequently) than using the local empirical model developed with the PGV-PD3 data from Southern California only. However, the influence of this epistemic uncertainty on EEW is not that obvious for the cases of Taiwan and Japan.
KW - Earthquake early warning
KW - Epistemic uncertainty
KW - PGV-PD3 empirical model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84903598620&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.soildyn.2014.06.003
DO - 10.1016/j.soildyn.2014.06.003
M3 - 期刊論文
AN - SCOPUS:84903598620
SN - 0267-7261
VL - 65
SP - 126
EP - 130
JO - Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
JF - Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
ER -