Ensemble forecasting of typhoon rainfall and floods over a mountainous watershed in Taiwan

Ling Feng Hsiao, Ming Jen Yang, Cheng Shang Lee, Hung Chi Kuo, Dong Sin Shih, Chin Cheng Tsai, Chieh Ju Wang, Lung Yao Chang, Delia Yen Chu Chen, Lei Feng, Jing Shan Hong, Chin Tzu Fong, Der Song Chen, Tien Chiang Yeh, Ching Yuang Huang, Wen Dar Guo, Gwo Fong Lin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

71 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this study, an ensemble meteorological modeling system is one-way coupled with a hydrological model to predict typhoon rainfall and flood responses in a mountainous watershed in Taiwan. This ensemble meteorological model framework includes perturbations of the initial conditions, data analysis methods, and physical parameterizations. The predicted rainfall from the ensemble meteorological modeling system is then used to drive a physically distributed hydrological model for flood responses in the Lanyang basin during the landfall of Typhoon Nanmadol (2011). The ensemble forecast provides track forecasts that are comparable to the operational center track forecasts and provides a more accurate rainfall forecast than a single deterministic prediction. The runoff forecast, which is driven by the ensemble rainfall prediction, can provide uncertainties for the runoff forecasts during typhoon landfall. Thus, the ensemble prediction system provides useful probability information for rainfall and runoff forecasting.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)55-68
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Hydrology
Volume506
DOIs
StatePublished - 9 Dec 2013

Keywords

  • Ensemble forecast
  • Mountainous watershed
  • Runoff prediction
  • Typhoon rainfall

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