Earthquake probability in Taipei based on non-local model with limited local observation: Maximum likelihood estimation

J. P. Wang, Yun Xu, Yih Min Wu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Many earthquake empirical models were developed based on the statistics in the past. However, it is commonly seen that a non-local model was applied to a local study without any adjustment. In this paper, a new algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to adjust a non-local model for local applications was presented, including a case study assessing the probability of major earthquake occurrences in Taipei. Specifically, considering the fault length of 36 km and slip rate of 2 mm/yr, it suggests the Sanchiao (or Shanchiao) fault could induce a major earthquake with magnitude Mw 7.14±0.17, based on a non-local model integrated with limited local data using the MLE algorithms.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)150-156
Number of pages7
JournalSoil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
Volume99
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Aug 2017

Keywords

  • Empirical model adjustment
  • Maximum likelihood estimation
  • Sanchiao fault in Taipei

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