Earthquake probability in Taipei based on non-local model with limited local observation: Maximum likelihood estimation

J. P. Wang; Yun Xu; Yih Min Wu

doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2017.05.009

Earthquake probability in Taipei based on non-local model with limited local observation: Maximum likelihood estimation

J. P. Wang, Yun Xu, Yih Min Wu

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Many earthquake empirical models were developed based on the statistics in the past. However, it is commonly seen that a non-local model was applied to a local study without any adjustment. In this paper, a new algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to adjust a non-local model for local applications was presented, including a case study assessing the probability of major earthquake occurrences in Taipei. Specifically, considering the fault length of 36 km and slip rate of 2 mm/yr, it suggests the Sanchiao (or Shanchiao) fault could induce a major earthquake with magnitude M_w 7.14±0.17, based on a non-local model integrated with limited local data using the MLE algorithms.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	150-156
Number of pages	7
Journal	Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
Volume	99
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2017.05.009
State	Published - 1 Aug 2017

Keywords

Empirical model adjustment
Maximum likelihood estimation
Sanchiao fault in Taipei

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10.1016/j.soildyn.2017.05.009

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title = "Earthquake probability in Taipei based on non-local model with limited local observation: Maximum likelihood estimation",

abstract = "Many earthquake empirical models were developed based on the statistics in the past. However, it is commonly seen that a non-local model was applied to a local study without any adjustment. In this paper, a new algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to adjust a non-local model for local applications was presented, including a case study assessing the probability of major earthquake occurrences in Taipei. Specifically, considering the fault length of 36 km and slip rate of 2 mm/yr, it suggests the Sanchiao (or Shanchiao) fault could induce a major earthquake with magnitude Mw 7.14±0.17, based on a non-local model integrated with limited local data using the MLE algorithms.",

keywords = "Empirical model adjustment, Maximum likelihood estimation, Sanchiao fault in Taipei",

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T1 - Earthquake probability in Taipei based on non-local model with limited local observation

T2 - Maximum likelihood estimation

AU - Wang, J. P.

AU - Xu, Yun

AU - Wu, Yih Min

PY - 2017/8/1

Y1 - 2017/8/1

N2 - Many earthquake empirical models were developed based on the statistics in the past. However, it is commonly seen that a non-local model was applied to a local study without any adjustment. In this paper, a new algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to adjust a non-local model for local applications was presented, including a case study assessing the probability of major earthquake occurrences in Taipei. Specifically, considering the fault length of 36 km and slip rate of 2 mm/yr, it suggests the Sanchiao (or Shanchiao) fault could induce a major earthquake with magnitude Mw 7.14±0.17, based on a non-local model integrated with limited local data using the MLE algorithms.

AB - Many earthquake empirical models were developed based on the statistics in the past. However, it is commonly seen that a non-local model was applied to a local study without any adjustment. In this paper, a new algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to adjust a non-local model for local applications was presented, including a case study assessing the probability of major earthquake occurrences in Taipei. Specifically, considering the fault length of 36 km and slip rate of 2 mm/yr, it suggests the Sanchiao (or Shanchiao) fault could induce a major earthquake with magnitude Mw 7.14±0.17, based on a non-local model integrated with limited local data using the MLE algorithms.

KW - Empirical model adjustment

KW - Maximum likelihood estimation

KW - Sanchiao fault in Taipei

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M3 - 期刊論文

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SN - 0267-7261

VL - 99

SP - 150

EP - 156

JO - Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

JF - Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

ER -

Earthquake probability in Taipei based on non-local model with limited local observation: Maximum likelihood estimation

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