Copula-based earthquake early warning decision-making strategy

J. P. Wang, Xiao Song Tang, Yih Min Wu, Dian Qing Li

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper presents a new copula-based earthquake early warning (EEW) decision-making strategy, aiming to characterize missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities for an on-site EEW and determine an optimum threshold at which EEW should be set off with the lowest missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities combined. On the basis of an existing PD3-PGV (PD3: peak ground displacement within the first three seconds after P-wave arrives; PGV: peak ground velocity) on-site EEW, the analysis shows that a copula model consisting of the Lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Frank copula can satisfactorily model the PD3-PGV joint probability distribution. Accordingly, the optimum PD3 triggering thresholds for different PGV warning thresholds from 5 to 35 cm/s are presented for future references in the use of the PD3-PGV on-site EEW with maximum reliability.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)324-330
Number of pages7
JournalSoil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
Volume115
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2018

Keywords

  • Copula approach
  • Earthquake early warning
  • Joint distribution
  • Reliability

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