Copula-based earthquake early warning decision-making strategy

J. P. Wang; Xiao Song Tang; Yih Min Wu; Dian Qing Li

doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.08.031

Copula-based earthquake early warning decision-making strategy

J. P. Wang, Xiao Song Tang, Yih Min Wu, Dian Qing Li

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper presents a new copula-based earthquake early warning (EEW) decision-making strategy, aiming to characterize missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities for an on-site EEW and determine an optimum threshold at which EEW should be set off with the lowest missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities combined. On the basis of an existing PD₃-PGV (PD₃: peak ground displacement within the first three seconds after P-wave arrives; PGV: peak ground velocity) on-site EEW, the analysis shows that a copula model consisting of the Lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Frank copula can satisfactorily model the PD₃-PGV joint probability distribution. Accordingly, the optimum PD₃ triggering thresholds for different PGV warning thresholds from 5 to 35 cm/s are presented for future references in the use of the PD₃-PGV on-site EEW with maximum reliability.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	324-330
Number of pages	7
Journal	Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
Volume	115
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.08.031
State	Published - Dec 2018

Keywords

Copula approach
Earthquake early warning
Joint distribution
Reliability

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10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.08.031

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title = "Copula-based earthquake early warning decision-making strategy",

abstract = "This paper presents a new copula-based earthquake early warning (EEW) decision-making strategy, aiming to characterize missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities for an on-site EEW and determine an optimum threshold at which EEW should be set off with the lowest missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities combined. On the basis of an existing PD3-PGV (PD3: peak ground displacement within the first three seconds after P-wave arrives; PGV: peak ground velocity) on-site EEW, the analysis shows that a copula model consisting of the Lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Frank copula can satisfactorily model the PD3-PGV joint probability distribution. Accordingly, the optimum PD3 triggering thresholds for different PGV warning thresholds from 5 to 35 cm/s are presented for future references in the use of the PD3-PGV on-site EEW with maximum reliability.",

keywords = "Copula approach, Earthquake early warning, Joint distribution, Reliability",

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AU - Wang, J. P.

AU - Tang, Xiao Song

AU - Wu, Yih Min

AU - Li, Dian Qing

PY - 2018/12

Y1 - 2018/12

N2 - This paper presents a new copula-based earthquake early warning (EEW) decision-making strategy, aiming to characterize missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities for an on-site EEW and determine an optimum threshold at which EEW should be set off with the lowest missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities combined. On the basis of an existing PD3-PGV (PD3: peak ground displacement within the first three seconds after P-wave arrives; PGV: peak ground velocity) on-site EEW, the analysis shows that a copula model consisting of the Lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Frank copula can satisfactorily model the PD3-PGV joint probability distribution. Accordingly, the optimum PD3 triggering thresholds for different PGV warning thresholds from 5 to 35 cm/s are presented for future references in the use of the PD3-PGV on-site EEW with maximum reliability.

AB - This paper presents a new copula-based earthquake early warning (EEW) decision-making strategy, aiming to characterize missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities for an on-site EEW and determine an optimum threshold at which EEW should be set off with the lowest missed-alarm and false-alarm probabilities combined. On the basis of an existing PD3-PGV (PD3: peak ground displacement within the first three seconds after P-wave arrives; PGV: peak ground velocity) on-site EEW, the analysis shows that a copula model consisting of the Lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Frank copula can satisfactorily model the PD3-PGV joint probability distribution. Accordingly, the optimum PD3 triggering thresholds for different PGV warning thresholds from 5 to 35 cm/s are presented for future references in the use of the PD3-PGV on-site EEW with maximum reliability.

KW - Copula approach

KW - Earthquake early warning

KW - Joint distribution

KW - Reliability

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JO - Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

JF - Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

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Copula-based earthquake early warning decision-making strategy

Abstract

Keywords

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